As the world races against time to reach net-zero emissions by 2030, the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, particularly with the ongoing trade and tariff war, pose a serious challenge to global climate ambitions.
At first glance, a trade war may seem like a bilateral economic spat. But when the two largest carbon emitters and clean technology producers enter a prolonged dispute, the ripple effects are felt across the globe. Together, the US and China account for over 40% of global emissions and dominate the manufacturing and export of renewable energy technologies, from solar panels to electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Tariffs imposed on clean energy components such as lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, and wind turbine parts create cost barriers that slow down the deployment of these technologies at a time when we need rapid scaling.
China is the world’s largest manufacturer of solar panels, supplying over 80% of the global market. However, US tariffs on Chinese solar products, aimed at protecting domestic industries, have paradoxically made solar installations more expensive in the US. This slows the clean energy transition despite policy incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which aims to boost clean tech domestically. Electric vehicles, too, face uncertainty. Battery supply chains dependent on rare earth minerals and Chinese processing are vulnerable to tariff fluctuations, threatening EV adoption goals in both nations.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear to limit global warming to 1.5°C, we must halve emissions by 2030. Delays in clean energy transitions due to trade barriers can cause a domino effect, slower adoption, higher costs, decreased investor confidence, and ultimately, missed climate targets. Both nations have announced bold climate pledges. China aims for carbon neutrality by 2060, and the US is targeting net zero by 2050. But escalating economic conflicts divert attention and resources away from these priorities.
The climate crisis is a shared challenge that requires collaborative innovation and technological exchange. The trade war not only disrupts supply chains but also erodes the potential for joint research, development, and standard-setting in clean energy. Ironically, climate cooperation could be the one area that brings geopolitical adversaries to the same table. But so far, competitive nationalism and industrial protectionism seem to be winning over collective climate responsibility.
To mitigate the impact of this trade war on the global energy transition, a multi-pronged approach is essential. First, climate action must be decoupled from broader geopolitical tensions through the creation of diplomatic carve-outs that safeguard climate cooperation even amidst economic disputes. Second, countries must diversify their clean energy supply chains to reduce dependence on a single nation, building resilience while maintaining the spirit of international collaboration.
Third, strengthening multilateral platforms such as the G20, COP summits, and international climate finance institutions is crucial to promote trade frameworks that align with global climate goals. Lastly, establishing transparent, universally accepted environmental and labour standards in clean technology manufacturing can ease trade frictions, foster trust, and ensure fair and sustainable global competition.
The US-China trade war is more than just an economic conflict; it’s a climate risk multiplier. As nations gear up for COP30 and beyond, the message is clear: we cannot afford to let trade disputes derail our path to net zero. Climate change won’t wait for tariffs to settle.
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